Open Win Rate Explained: How Many of Your Bets Are Currently Winning?
The One-Sentence Definition
Open Win Rate is the percentage of your currently-open positions where market value exceeds cost basis.
Open Win Rate is calculated automatically in Turbobulls, updated with every transaction. See it on your dashboard →
The Intuition: A Vote Count
Person A: Holding 10 stocks
7 are above the price you paid, 3 are below. Open Win Rate = 70%. Most of your bets are paying off right now.Person B: Holding 5 stocks
4 are tiny winners (+1% each), 1 is a huge loser (-50%). Open Win Rate = 80% - high - but the portfolio is down overall. Frequency lies; magnitude tells the truth.Open Win Rate is a vote count, not a profit count. Each position gets one vote regardless of its size. A 100,000 winner and a 100 winner contribute equally to the percentage.
What the Portfolio Badge Means
Inside Turbobulls, every metric carries a small scope badge that tells you what data feeds it. Open Win Rate carries the Portfolio badge.
That means it looks at only your open positions:
- Open lots at every broker (positions you currently hold)
- Their current market value
- Their cost basis (what you paid for them)
It deliberately ignores closed positions, wallet cash, debt, and anything outside your tracked open holdings.
How to Read the Number
| Open Win Rate | What it typically means |
|---|---|
| 0% - 30% | Most of your bets are underwater. Could be a tough market, bad picks, or recently-opened positions still finding their feet. |
| 30% - 50% | Mixed bag. Below the coin-flip line - more losers than winners by count. |
| 50% - 70% | Healthy. Slight edge in your favour. Around what good stock pickers tend to average. |
| 70% - 90% | Strong. A high majority of bets are working. Watch out for concentration risk in the few losers. |
| > 90% | Suspiciously good. Either a great year, conservative holdings, or a portfolio with too few positions to be statistically meaningful. |
See How Many of Your Bets Are Paying Off
The Trap: Win Rate Without Magnitude
This is the most important caveat. Win rate ignores how much you won or lost. A 90% win rate sounds amazing, but if your 1 losing position is 50× the size of any winning one, you're losing money.
The classic trap pattern:
- 9 stocks up 2% each (+18% total contribution)
- 1 stock down 30% (-30% total contribution)
- Overall: down 12%
- Open Win Rate: 90% - completely misleading
How Turbobulls Calculates Open Win Rate
In plain words: Turbobulls looks at every position you currently hold, checks whether its market value is higher than what you paid, and reports the percentage that are.
Open Win Rate = (winning open positions / total open positions) × 100
Iterate open lots. Every lot you currently hold (excluding closed and zero-quantity).
Check each one. Is current market value greater than cost basis? If yes, it's a winner.
Count. Count winners. Count total open positions.
Divide. Winners divided by total, times 100.
When Open Win Rate Matters - and When to Ignore It
- Quick portfolio health check. A glance tells you how broad your current pain is.
- Diversification analysis. Combined with ROI, reveals whether returns are concentrated or spread.
- Spotting bad streaks. A drop from 70% to 40% is a fast signal something has shifted.
- Tracking strategy fit. Conservative strategies should have higher win rates; aggressive ones often lower.
- You optimise for it. High win rate at the cost of small wins / huge losses is a losing strategy.
- You have few positions. A 100% win rate with 2 positions is meaningless.
- Position sizes are very uneven. One concentrated bet can dominate returns while contributing equally to win count.
- You want total return. Use ROI - win rate ignores magnitudes entirely.
The Full Picture: Pair Open Win Rate With These
Open Win Rate tells you frequency. Pair it with these for the full performance picture:
A Vote Count of Your Winning Positions, Updated Live
Turbobulls computes Open Win Rate automatically across your portfolio. Paired with ROI and Sharpe, you get the full frequency-and-magnitude picture.
- Automatic Open Win Rate across all currently-held positions
- Per-broker, per-asset-type, per-currency breakdowns
- Pairs with ROI for magnitude context
- Lot-level precision - same ticker bought at different prices counts separately
- Multi-currency portfolios handled natively
- Zero manual calculations - log a transaction, see updated metrics
Read more
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